The PPP let the opposition gain strength after 2011

Ralph Ramkarran laments what might have been if the PPP “now reactive and on the back foot” had made political deals instead….


In an article on his website Conversation Tree Ralph Ramkarran assesses the PPP approach to its public since 2011. I have taken out certain quotes from this article. You can read the full article here.

"The PPP could have been facing the electorate in completely different circumstances. Displaying a woeful lack of foresight, it sat back and allowed its opponents to unite, rather than keeping them competing for influence, as they had been doing after the elections. The exposure of the Government/Granger Linden electricity deal by the AFC in 2012 comes to mind. Now, the APNU+AFC political alliance threatens the PPP’s hold on political power.

Had it established an early coalition government with APNU after being reduced to a plurality in 2011, the electorate would have been asked at these elections to return a PPP+APNU, not an APNU+AFC, alliance to office. We could have been in a transformative era in Guyana’s politics, in accordance with Cheddi Jagan’s legacy. It is the AFC which is now claiming this mantle. True or not, this claim will resonate during the campaign aided by an APNU+AFC campaign strategy of offering change, reform and renewal, always an attractive strategy when facing an incumbent in office for 22 years.

David Granger APNU AFC Presidential Candidate

Both the government and the electorate have inevitably succumbed to the fatigue generated by incumbency. Both have become jaded and have lost enthusiasm. The government has lost the capacity to innovate. ..

The PPP has been on the back foot and reactive since it lost its majority in 2011. The APNU+AFC alliance and its confident, upbeat launching last Wednesday in an electric atmosphere will keep the PPP on the back foot, if their campaign is supplemented with a credible programme. The only response of the PPP is its record from 1992 to the present and of the PNC’s past. Advances made since 1992 no longer inspire because conditions before 1992 are distant memories. The PPP does not refer to its record from 2011 to the present during which time, according to the just published LAPOP poll, there has been a sharp decline in optimism about politics and the economy."

The challenge the PPP faces in the May 11 election

From an article by Ralph Ramkarran. Read the full article here

Ralph Ramkarran

Ralph Ramkarran is the son of one of the founders of the PPP--" Boysie"Ramkarran who was Dr. Cheddi Jagan's long time deputy leader.
I have put in italics what I regard as key ideas from this article.
Ramkarran's articles are on his website-http://conversationtree.gy/

It must have been hard for him to resign from the party that he and his father built. He has close insights into the way the party operates and the manner in which the Jagdeo faction destroyed the core values of the PPP.
Ralph was the speaker of Guyana's [ar;iament from 1992 to 2011.

Guyana's Parliament

"No one can predict the outcome of the elections with any accuracy. Both parties are well placed and the margin of victory will be small. The PPP would obviously seek to find creative ways to get its campaign against what it would describe as ‘the PNC’s possible return to power with the AFC’s help’ to take
hold so as to encourage PPP supporters who stayed away from the polls in 2011 or who migrated to the AFC in anger to return. The PPP will want to inculcate the feeling in their current and past supporters that however much they may be angry with the party, it would be more important to prevent a ‘return’ to office of the ‘PNC’ even if it is in alliance with the AFC. The PPP sees this strategy as offering the best potential for recovery. Unless such a campaign is conducted with some sophistication, it will be seen as an appeal to race and be counter-productive. But it is the PNCR that has long chosen to be silent about those issues of its past that most concern PPP supporters and the opposition alliance would understand that it must live with that decision.

Unless the PPP can find a way to deliver its message to the youth who form a substantial portion of the electorate, it would have difficulty in regaining a majority. Rural youth, potential supporters of the PPP, are not enthused and city youth, many from traditional PPP families, are swayed by the AFC. The message against the ‘PNC’ is unlikely to have substantial resonance with youth because they have no experience of the PNCR in office...

The message that the opposition has obstructed progress is not likely to resonate either, because the PPP has put forward no credible reason why it did not invite a coalition government to involve the opposition in governance...

But the PPP has given no indication so far that it has learnt the lesson of its loss in 2011. Believing that it was impossible to lose elections again, it allowed its organizational capacity to degenerate. Concluding that it is only its weak organizational output in 2011 that caused its loss, it has worked hard to restore its capacity. But even if it has now improved, organizational capacity alone will not cause former supporters who do not want to vote to change their minds. Organizational capacity will not influence a voter to change his or her support from AFC to PPP.

 The question the PPP has to ask is: Have we addressed the causes for the dissatisfaction?"