Looking At The Numbers

Michael Vishnu Singh

The ruling party has been giving the impression that the upcoming election is all sewn up. They are going to win easily. They have lots of money and the machinery of the state to help them. Their supporters are so accustomed to voting for them that they are just going through the motions. In sport this called psyching up you team to expect an easy win.

If one takes a close look at the results of elections since 1992 then one can see that the numbers do not support an easy or foregone result. Does the average voter know that since 1997 the PPP/Civic has lost significant numbers of voters? Between 1997 and 20101 they lost about 10,000 voters. Between 2001 and 2006 they lost approximately 28,000 voters. What is interesting about the result in 2006 was they lost these voters despite the fact that their main rival the PNC/R has a disastrous showing in 2006 losing about 40,000 voters from a very good showing in 2001.

Does the average voter know that the PNC increased its vote in every election between 1992 and 2001? The gained about 33,000 voters between 1992 and 1997 and about 4,000 between 1997 and 2001. Remember these were elections in which the PPP/Civic had massive support and money from the business community. It was also a time when people doubted that a credible challenge could be made against the well oiled political machinery of the PPP.

We can begin to make some speculations. There are signs that APNU is tapping strongly into the PNC traditional base. Witness the turnout at APNU’s region 10 rally and the nomination day crowd supporting it. If APNU can repeat or go beyond the PNC’s performance of 165,866 votes in 2001 and if the PPP continues its slide in voter support we can have an extremely close election.

Some factors that influence this election is that there is no incumbent President who is well known. Also after nearly twenty years there is usually voter desire for any change. Then there is the fact that APNU has a leader who is not the traditional politician. He is a new kind of leader. At a time when Guyana is seen as an undisciplined country with poor security and a tired administration with a blurred idea of how to move the state forward David Granger is someone who has an interesting and unique profile.

David Granger was a military leader. He once headed the GDF. He has travelled and studied in several major countries. He spent a significant portion of his life researching and writing about important national historical moments. This is someone in tune with the ideals of our leaders of the past. David knows Guyana well through his postings in the GDF. More importantly at this time of climate change he knows both the coast and interior of Guyana. David is and engaging and relaxed personality. He is more in tune with the thoughts and feelings of what I call the silent majority. These are people who cringe at the present state of indiscipline in the society.

If you ask the average person in Guyana—are you happy? The answer is no. If you ask do you feel secure? –The answer is again no. If you ask do you feel that our administration has a vision for Guyana—the answer is again no. These people are the 38,000 who have quietly retreated from the ruling party. They have not apparently chosen to vote for another party.

This an opportunity for APNU. They have to sell the idea of a promising future in which Guyanese feel happy, safe and proud to be Guyanese. They are waiting to be won over. They will be won over by what APNU is for. Mother Theresa once said that she would not go to an anti war rally but she would go for a Pro Peace rally.

Deep down all Guyanese want an end to the fighting between parties. They want the key players in society to work together. They want National Unity. The world is seeing dramatic changes. Barrack Obama defied political wisdom and won out in the Democratic Party again Hilary Clinton who had the money and power brokers behind her. He sold the idea of Change you can believe in. He was able to tap into the core feeling of the electorate.

David Granger has the profile of the person the Guyanese nation is longing for—a decent, intelligent, firm, disciplined and visionary leader.