The challenge the PPP faces in the May 11 election

From an article by Ralph Ramkarran. Read the full article here

Ralph Ramkarran

Ralph Ramkarran is the son of one of the founders of the PPP--" Boysie"Ramkarran who was Dr. Cheddi Jagan's long time deputy leader.
I have put in italics what I regard as key ideas from this article.
Ramkarran's articles are on his website-http://conversationtree.gy/

It must have been hard for him to resign from the party that he and his father built. He has close insights into the way the party operates and the manner in which the Jagdeo faction destroyed the core values of the PPP.
Ralph was the speaker of Guyana's [ar;iament from 1992 to 2011.

Guyana's Parliament

"No one can predict the outcome of the elections with any accuracy. Both parties are well placed and the margin of victory will be small. The PPP would obviously seek to find creative ways to get its campaign against what it would describe as ‘the PNC’s possible return to power with the AFC’s help’ to take
hold so as to encourage PPP supporters who stayed away from the polls in 2011 or who migrated to the AFC in anger to return. The PPP will want to inculcate the feeling in their current and past supporters that however much they may be angry with the party, it would be more important to prevent a ‘return’ to office of the ‘PNC’ even if it is in alliance with the AFC. The PPP sees this strategy as offering the best potential for recovery. Unless such a campaign is conducted with some sophistication, it will be seen as an appeal to race and be counter-productive. But it is the PNCR that has long chosen to be silent about those issues of its past that most concern PPP supporters and the opposition alliance would understand that it must live with that decision.

Unless the PPP can find a way to deliver its message to the youth who form a substantial portion of the electorate, it would have difficulty in regaining a majority. Rural youth, potential supporters of the PPP, are not enthused and city youth, many from traditional PPP families, are swayed by the AFC. The message against the ‘PNC’ is unlikely to have substantial resonance with youth because they have no experience of the PNCR in office...

The message that the opposition has obstructed progress is not likely to resonate either, because the PPP has put forward no credible reason why it did not invite a coalition government to involve the opposition in governance...

But the PPP has given no indication so far that it has learnt the lesson of its loss in 2011. Believing that it was impossible to lose elections again, it allowed its organizational capacity to degenerate. Concluding that it is only its weak organizational output in 2011 that caused its loss, it has worked hard to restore its capacity. But even if it has now improved, organizational capacity alone will not cause former supporters who do not want to vote to change their minds. Organizational capacity will not influence a voter to change his or her support from AFC to PPP.

 The question the PPP has to ask is: Have we addressed the causes for the dissatisfaction?"